Whisky .................. commerciality will be confirmed 1Q 2015 providing the initial estimates are confirmed, remember CN has already stated that SNE will be commercial and Cairn has stated that it is very likely that FAN will be commercial ........... all they need is the independent analysis to confirm these comments.
If you look at the development of Jubilee, Tullow went into production development straight after the initial results were confirmed and the first oil flowed round 3.5 years after the initial discovery, although they were still completing appraisal wells as they were producing the first oil.
IMO COP will be pushing this extremely hard and if both finds are confirmed to be commercial Q1 2015 will want to proceed into production development straight away .............. all the appraisal wells will do is confirm the extent of the field plus of course porosity, API rating pressures etc as they move out, from the results they obtain the C2 estimate amount will increase / decrease accordingly.
HKP
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