what we now know

1. At these pressures methane and longer hydrocarbons are in liquid form ie rocks at this level and up-dip are
Permeability to gas - this, in combination with formation pressure, determines how fast gas can flow through the rock - it is linked to porosity - though is not determined by porosity (note volcanic rock is highly porous though practically impermeable - though fortunately this is sandstone).
saturated with the maximal amount of gas they can hold. Therefore the formation is "chockers" - as some would put it from at least 40 foot below the bottom of the interval tested to the top of the formation.

2. They must have found commercial flow rates in the first few hours of flow testing or they would plug Barker Creek and move onto the next formation up rather than waiting for 48hrs (If flow rates are too low at start they will not get better - they are testing to see if the POTENTIALLY COMMERCIAL flow is maintained.

So - we know they have plenty of gas. All we need to know now is if it will flow out fast enough to make this well viable (NB - if the flow rate is below what the pipeline requires though still reasonable - 1mmcf/d say - it can be combined with output from another well once drilled).

The factors that determines flow rate are:

Knowns:
Formation pressure: excellent

Porosity: consistent with productive formations elsewhere in Paradox basin.

Unknowns:

Surface area of rock exposed - increased by fracturing - and contrary to what Sue would have you believe - is ROUTINE in almost all wells as it increases flow rate in all but the most naturally fractured formations - and who would not want to increase flow rates.

Permeabilty of rock - an intrinsic property of this rock and in sandstone is linked to porosity though permeability tends to be good even in low-porosity sandstone (you can test this youself by pooring water onto sandstone and seeing how easily is soaks into it)

The 48hr flow test will give us an idea of the combination effect of all of these factors. We don't know if it is commercial yet - though we have the best indication yet that it likely will be. We'll only really know once (IF) it has been producing for a few months,

This selloff is just traders who bought in the mid thirties "selling on fact".