what will a $1b investment mean to pep11

just posted on BUY, just posting on all other pep 11 stocks as well

Well im very surprised that no one has crunched any figures as yet about a possible $1b investment into PEP11. yes i know its not directly with BUY, but the way i see it this is just as good for BUY as it is everyone else.

SO the media is toting a $1b investment for a 25% stake in Advent. Thats right ADVENT not a farmin for 25% of PEP 11, just a 25% stake in Advent. Not taking into account for anything else Advent have on their books, just using PEP 11 alone for this.

So with the possible investment of $1b for the 25% stake in Advent i came up with the flowing spreadsheet.

*Note i havent used any figures of indirect exposure to PEP 11 for MMR and GBA and BPH via their holdings of each other, too confusing for me too work out today.

*Note i havent used any new figures of BPH reference the capital consolidation.

PEP 11 split up once well has been drilled.

Advent 85%
Bounty 15%


I have used the Advent break down as of the last investment presentation on MMR 22/10/10 page 4

http://www.hotcopper.com.au/announcementFiles/2010%5CMMR%5C94c692bc-78ca-46be-83f8-1e6779ae014b-MMR510913.pdf


Advent -

MMR - 44.9%
BPH - 27.75% (Pending BPH attaining necessary approvals and conditions as per BPH ASX announcement 11 October 2010)
GBA - 7.69%
Talbot - 9.57%
others - 10.1%

So now lets look at the spreadsheet.




You will note that the perceived value for PEP 11 is $4,705,882,353, and not just $4b, this is because the Indians want a 25% stake of the 85% of PEP 11.

Which leaves if the perceived value for each company after the $1b investment compared to their current MC gives a bagger of the following.

Stock Bagger
BUY 10.20
MMR 13.72
BPH 26.80
GBA 20.41


As i hold BUY any investment in Advent of $1billon will definitely have a very positive effect on BUY share price, may not be as great as compared to the others but still a 10 bagger none the less.




*Note the above figures will not be 100% as i havent taken into account any indirect exposure of PEP11 via GBA, MMR, BPH holdings of each other.

*Note BPH figures will more than likely change due to current consolidation going on.

*Note all shares outstanding are not fully diluted including options.



Enjoy our run as the fun is just about to begin.



Keep on Buying

Harry out