Lets assume June's Iron Ore spot average = $US92 & AUDUSD = 0.925
1H14 eps = 14.8 2H14 eps = 7.1 (calc's below)
FY14 eps = 21.9
FY14 Gearing = 32.2% (down from 36.7% end FY13)
FY14 Stat Net Debt = $1,824m. A 14% fall in 12 months!
Fy14 Capex = $437 or $75m more than DA as well.
When you think about 14% fall in Net debt and combined capex spend which will produce EBITDA and cash saving in years to come...
1) Additional 15% Production for mining consumables 2) Steel $40m a year cost saving 3) Additional 400kt Iron Ore production utilising full port capacity. 4) Mining Consumables $15m a year cost saving from Newcastle 5) Materially lower interest payments FY15 = $94m down from $114m in FY14, A $20m saving.
Using IO = $US105 and currency = 0.925 I get a Net Debt down to $300m in 5 years. That is after a 12 cents a year dividend, which will should be franked from FY16.