The recent release of the mysafehouse.com (now to be known as...

The recent release of the mysafehouse.com (now to be known as Intevia® Enterprise HTML Client) system together with the many other specialist applications has stil not electrified the market. The provision of news related to POs, even if major, would not make any difference.

The market largely consists of probably only 200 holders who mostly have all they want or can afford. The top 20 (who hold over 50% alone) and the next 150 or so together control over 90% of the stock. Many of these holding entities also have multiple holdings so there may really be fewer than 100 in all. There are a few small holders with 50K or less taking up about 4 M shares or so in total and these are almost the only traded shares when DKR is not selling. That means there is almost nothing to trade and so the volatility is high with swings of 50c a day possible on not much more than petty cash.

There might be some engineered rise in the price resulting from the gradual introduction of controlled buying to take out the small holders. This might get the price up before delist offer. A few million shares will be placed at IPO to CS clients for funding purposes and debt reduction /elimination at a significant premium to the current price but I don't see news doing much as it rarely has any effect. If the market is not electrified with news that TZ's market has more than doubled overnight with the latest release then what can they do while stuck on the this ASX outpost and so completely ignored?

The valuation analysis that will underpin the prospectus will have aggregate numbers based on the value of POs received. That will help a bit but probably not much. That is why I am expecting a large gap up on listing. There will be a PR campaign before the IPO but not here. Why would they waste their time? The lack of news or the presence of incredible news has the same effect. The price may spike for a day or two but generally you will need several million shares trading to sustain the entry of new buyers and I can't see existing holders (at least the top 100) giving any away so we will have to wait for the NASDAQ to realise the true potential. We've been saying that for a long time. The play has always been the transfer to a mature market where the TZ future lies.

After the last week of announcements I am even less likely to be selling before the potential is realised as it is better than double what I was expecting. A few years to satisfy these new markets will show what I mean. Some of the TZ principals (and some other large holders) will be very satisfied.