what will it take - go up!, page-35

NCM appears well placed for a big move up.

Looking at a weekly chart, the RSI last week was at its lowest since late 2008.

The Slow Stochastic at its lowest level for at least five years. (I didn't go back any further than that.)

The Slo Stochs is currently at 7.112 (using the usual default on Big Charts.) That is very oversold.

It's hard to imagine a worse technical picture than this.

Looking at the price chart, NCM is still above critical support in the 28 area.

A break below there would be very bearish.

It's well known that we are coming into a strong seasonal period for gold. The northern summer is usually poor for gold. The European jewellery manufacturers usually take holidays in August, so the demand for gold is very low. From September into the early part of the new year sees demand for gold pick up. First we have the Indian harvest season and wedding season. Then we get Christmas in the affluent Western countries followed by Chinese New Year.

Given the extremely poor technical picture for NCM (it could hardly be worse), September should see price pick up and sustain for weeks, perhaps 3-4 months.

September is just a few days away.

Patience.

The past few days has seen a sustained rally in Lihir

A similar pattern should be seen in Newcrest in the near future.

I'll be positioning myself now for a move up in Newcrest. A stop just below 28.00 looks like a wise precaution.

Cheers
Red