what will keep the us economy going now?, page-9

re:us bond market-seafarer G'day seafarer (bit of a seafarer myself)
The article "Using the Bond Market To Anticipate Stock Market Declines" is from an ataa (australian technical analysts association) journal. Written by Richard Padgham. He states that his research shows that bear markets, defined by him as fall of greater than 10% can be forewarned. Cant post the article but heres a small extract.
"The eguation used above is a comparison of the weekly average yield of the one year treasury note with the similar yield of the 10 year note. When the one year yield exceeds the 10 year yield by 4.5% such as in 1966 when the one year yield was $.91% versus 4.63% a bear market is at hand"
The stock index he used was the sp500.
In the conclusion he states "Each of the 12 major bear markets (the study was 1966-1994) , and all but one of the corrections greater than 10% that have taken place since 1966 could have been substantially avoided through the use of these equations"
cheers
Rod
PS Back issues of the journals are available on cd to members - http://www.ataa.com.au/journal.html
I'm not a member but have attended some of their meetings.