What will majority shareholders do with TIG? - some speculation?

FY 2021 has been a major step for TIG to profitability and higher prices for coal is and will play into the hands of TIG.
This brings up the question what majority stakeholders will do with TIG? Please note, that the two major stakeholders hold roughly 80%.


Both information is taken from the AR 2020 (page 98 and 99 respectively).

There are three scenarios for majority stakeholders I could think of.
Firstly, they hold their stakes and might initiate a return of capital to shareholders within the next 18-24 months.
Secondly, they reduce their leverage and sell some (or all) of their shares to a new stakeholder (probably Chinese) at a higher price than market price.
Thirdly, they take TIG private (and could sell these shares of the private company to a new stakeholder at an even higher price).

The third scenario seems to be the most riskiest for minority stakeholders as it is difficult for them to establish a fair prices if TIG were to be taken private. This scenario could also been reached in the long term by buying back shares in the market.

Scenario two is from my point of view rather unlikely unless majors stakeholders consider risks being very high, e.g. with regard to coal price or Chinese demand and thus are willing to miss out on a price increase for all their current stakes. The first scenario offers a fair chance for minority stakeholders to earn their part. Scenario three would clearly limit possible profits of minority stakeholders but its likelihood is IMHO rather high.

Any additions or comments?