What will this fall to on failed takeover?, page-13

It is hard to see share price falling materially if the vote fails.

There is a lot of support for the existing share price.

1. Brookfield and EIG have bid $9.53/share indicating they think it is worth at least that.
2. AusSuper and reportedly some other funds are rejecting $9.53/share as they think it is worth more than that.
3. The independent valuation supported a mid-point valuation of $8.97/share as at 30 June 2023 which it also estimated could be approx 40c/share higher ($9.37/share) by middle of December 2023.
4. The closest trading comparison, AGL Energy, is up over 40% since the original bid. So even without the offer there is a good chance that ORG would be trading 40% higher than a year ago too (over $8/share).
5. The share price is trading at a material discount to the offer price. So the market has already priced in a high chance of the deal not going through.
6. The bidders are reported to be working on another offer (that would require >50% acceptance) if this offer fails so that will also provide support to the share price.