What would a VLA transaction look like?

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    We all know VLA's strategy is to build a portfolio of clinical evidence that leads to a transaction with a global industry partner.  The Biovex deal has been widely touted as the benchmark of what that deal might be worth and how it might be structured.

    In light of recent speculation that VLA is in line to be acquired, I was interested in what punters might consider to be the most likely transaction structure?

    BMS (BMY) is one of the key movers in the IO space. In the last few months alone they have shelled out cash to partner with the aspirational Five Prime, Celldex, Rigel, Flexus and Eli Lilly – just for good measure.  And we are working with them -  a promising position to be in.

    IMHO, VLA could best expect a deal that looks like the one they did yesterday with Bavarian Nordic. http://www.bavarian-nordic.com/investor/news.aspx?news=4381

    Bavarian got $60m upfront, another $80m if the trial goes well, then from $50 and up to $230m in incremental payments, with a $110m kicker if their product gets registered.

    The deal is allegedly worth $975m in total, which seems pretty good, but note that Bavarian Nordic ended 2014 with its Phase 3 program for Prostvac fully enrolled with 1,200 patients.  VLA has stated they will not enter a Phase 3 without a partner.

    So what crazy deals can VLA do to get this thing up to the US$3 Roth valuation?
 
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