what would good news look like?, page-14

PEER COMPARISON – DENDREON CORPORATION
One company considered a proxy for PRR is NASDAQ-listed Dendreon
Corporation3, who, like PRR, has been developing a cancer-immune
therapy - but aimed at prostate cancer. The treatment is called
Provenge and has a similar therapeutic approach to CVac.
Dendreon is ahead of PRR in terms of trial stage, the FDA approval
process and commercialisation timeframe. Dendreon recently
completed a phase III trial of Provenge on 512 patients and the data
indicated that Provenge significantly extended survival in late-stage
prostate cancer patients, with no major side effects reported.
2 CA125 is a key biomarker for disease activity.
3 Market capitalisation at the time of writing was US$2.58 billion
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The positive trial results announced by Dendreon and the move closer
to commercialisation for Provenge (which is expected to be available
mid 2010) have two positive implications for PRR:
1. It is expected that the FDA approval process for CVac will be
advantaged by questions posed by the FDA to Dendreon in May
2007 relating to the clinical evaluation and manufacture of its
Provenge vaccine.
2. Dendreon is now considered a prime takeover target, especially
in light of pharmaceutical companies seeking new products to
counter declining sales, competition from generics, slow inhouse
drug development and a cutback by the FDA on
approvals for new treatments4. Dendreon has not yet signed
any partnership/marketing deals for Provenge. Similarly, PRR
has no such deals at present for the CVac treatment.
Two recent takeovers have occurred where the targets in each
case already had marketing partners. Japanese drugmaker
Takeda Pharmaceutical Co paid US$8.8 billion for Millennium
Pharmaceuticals to gain the cancer drug Velcade (treatment for
multiple myeloma and mantle cell lymphoma) and Eli Lilly and
Co paid US$6.5 billion for ImClone Systems, which makes the
cancer drug Erbitux (colorectal cancer).

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