The odds are as good as you can get with an elephant - as a...

The odds are as good as you can get with an elephant - as a great poster once said!

Let me put it in Russian roulette terms for you:

Assuming the chamber has been spun, lets see if we are a duster or not....

Standard revolver 6 chambers, ironically exploration wells have about a 1 in 6 chance of discovery.

Assume 6 players and a six-shot revolver, lets see if we are left standing.

A has a 1 in 6 chance of eating lead; if A survives,

(discovery of gas well within pre-drill estimates, my guess 6TFC)

B has a 1 in 5 chance of death; if B survives,

(hotcopper experts say commercial discovery is nearly a certainty - range of opinion over 50% to 95% certainty)

C has a 1 in 4 chance of death; if C survives,

(Production testing well, do you production test duds? Unlikely but never a certainty,positive either way)

D has a 1 in 3 chance of death; if D survives,

(ENI's success rate historically about 40% on commercial discoveries)

E has a 1 in 2 chance of death;

(Our current odds in my opinion, better than casino odds)

Will E survive or F,

F for failure and E for enjoying a nice bottle south of France !