I dont think you actually understand rodgersd. I am a long...

I dont think you actually understand rodgersd. I am a long investor. The quantum of loss makes no difference to me, or decision making.

Fundamentally the environment is deteriorating very quickly. What IS an input into decision making is the price of gold. I dont expect you to understand but there are a lot of misconceptions about gold and gold prices. I'd like to reproduce a post I made on another thread which provides some context to what I am talking about (per below, post #9072890):


I actually sit on a review commitee for the company I work for, which reviews how we produce our research. In the last 2-3years, I would say there has been a growing academic opinion on the processes we use to analyse and therefore report on gold as a commodity.

There is much to talk about on the subject but I'll keep it brief; essentially the 'movement' proposes that gold is not a 'commodity' in the traditional sense as gold is not CONSUMED, but hoarded (eg: stored away, kept as jewellery etc) This suggests that demand/supply do not impact price. This is in contrast to iron ore, aluminium etc which is consumed and is difficult to bring 'back' to market when scrapped.

Rather, gold is an asset as a separate class much like property or shares. Price movement is therefore influenced to a greater degree by perception or forward forecasting. Unfortunately people who have bought gold (in recent times)have assumed that due to money printing=inflation, loss of fiat currency etc, and the subsequent uptrend in POG that these sorts of developments support gold price behaviour. In truth they do not as it is all about the perception and where the price should be based on all other asset classes (portfolio weighting). To put it simply if you fear that bonds or any other asset class will provide substandard returns then you naturally flock to gold.

Such statements can be practically viewed in the market place. eg: continued money printing has never supported gold. It just looks that way. Or HAS looked that way. There isnt any economic reasoning behind it. Additionally, as confidence returns to other asset classes gold positions are unwound and moved into these perceived higher-growth assets. This has always been the case with gold if you review the history of it. Its actually a low growth asset inflation adjusted over time. This suggests that gold is going to fall back to trend, but my opinion is that it will not get there for at least another 4 years. It will be a slow burn. The inflation adj av POG is ~600-700USD

As a side note almost 99% of what you read of HC gold forum is incorrect in terms of 'price discovery'.