Yeah, all fair points.
I have an opposing view but let me state from the outset that by having zero direct experience in bio/pharma transactions this view carries little weight and I'm not confident in my view. In other words, me having confidence without experience is akin to the dunning kruger effect. Below is what makes me uncertain of any view on how a transaction could play out, especially my own.
1. We haven't seen any evidence which indicates what value RAC mgmt will place on Bisantrene. We don't know what future data may exist at the time of 'marketing' Bisantrene and how that will influence negotiating positions (either good or bad). We do not know exactly who the potential buyer(s) could be and how they will value Bisantrene e.g. consider if Bisantrene offers synergistic value for a drug(s) that a pharma may already have in their portfolio. Just because we as non-pharma M&A people (myself) can't calculate sales potential doesn't mean that professionals who work for these pharma companies can't. We don't know what level of pre-clinical and clinical trial data that a pharma company may require in order to "de-risk" a either partnership or transaction arrangement.
2. Why couldn't competition between pharma groups also create an situation which helps the best possible buyout deal?
3. There is evidence of buyouts both with and without a prior to partnerships but haven't seen any evidence yet which indicates how this transaction may play out.
My view is based mostly on what RAC mgmt have said (or at least what I have heard) in their presentation about marketing to pharma for a buyout and how little they have mentioned about partnership recently.
Will try to keep an open mind on partnership - buyout vs. straight buyout from the points you put forward... at least until some more information comes to light.
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