It makes a lot of sense to have a risked discount to the value of the buyout for an unapproved drug and I would normally agree with that. However, Immunomedics and Five Prime, as examples, were bought for at least x4 of buyout.
Trodelvy was approved for TNBC with estimated 1.6b peak sales, but another analyst determined the whole breast cancer spectrum that trodelvy can be applicable was 4.7b(as @@wombat777 has indicated). So, it seems that there was no discount even though trodelvy was only approved for TNBC(other breast indication was midway through P3).
Five Prime completed P2 grials for gastric cancer(a subset) with peak sales for that indication 67m, their other less advanced indications for that drug would be peak sales of 305m. So, 1.9B based off an unapproved drug with less advanced indications seems to be more than x4 peak sales.
I understand these are anecdotal, but it does indicate that buyouts take into consideration more than discounting based off how far advanced the drug is. Possibly being FIC/BIC with a massive lead in this precision therapy may make BP consider making an offer that would be very attractive.
What's going on with Race Oncology at the moment ?, page-51
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