what's going on?, page-29

Macquarie's summary for AFG on 18 July, after AFG's release of its June Quarter Index publication, is attached below. As stated previously Macquarie is the broker AFG uses for capital raisings, so they have a pretty good idea of where the AFG business is at. (Hope the cut and paste reproduces OK)

	BROKER	DATE	RATING	RECOMMENDATION	TARGET PRICE	% TO REACH TARGET
1	Macquarie	18/07/2023	3	Neutral	$1.61	-2.72%
2	COMMENTARYMacquarie observes lodgements rebounded in the June quarter, up 15.6% sequentially, yet this was affected by competition with the mix continuing to shift away from higher margin "AFG Home Loan" product. Total residential settlements are expected to decline -9.7% in FY23.The broker maintains a Neutral rating, believing Australian Finance Group will face earnings pressure in the current market. Target is steady at $1.61.FORECASTMacquarie forecasts a full year FY23 dividend of 13.10 cents and EPS of 15.60 cents.Macquarie forecasts a full year FY24 dividend of 12.30 cents and EPS of 15.90 cents.

Given the AFG interim dividend was 6.6c, Macquarie is forecasting 6.5c for the final dividend. I feel this is about as good a guide as we might get before Friday's report.

Cheers Westwind