NCK 0.14% $14.55 nick scali limited

What's going on?

  1. 118 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 10
    Hello fellow traders,

    Does anyone know the actual reason why Mr Christopher Malley, CFO, left suddenly before the Annual Report in October? Is he okay?
    I've got a couple of questions about the future of this business when I've looked at the numbers and trends, something seems odd...

    1. Plush Acquisition.
    I understand the concept, they bought this because they assumed people will be poor with inflation and trade down into a value option, and they had excess capital during Covid. But I think they didn't really realise who their core target market was, it's the average punter. Average punter is buying Nick Scali not the wealthy. It's like "luxury brands" like LV etc, it's punters buying this not wealthy. There are so many better value couch companies on the market now, including innovative businesses like Koala which are low cost operators. They paid $100m for the business, but in FY22 plush did sales of $88.8m, that is significantly overpaying and simply bought revenue. Yes they'll get some synergies but also, conflict in bringing this into the business.

    2. Valuation
    Their current PE of 12 is fair, but that's at current sales rates. Surely drastic sales were brought forward during covid.
    They are valued at almost $1b but their assets are just $140m.... how does that make sense?

    3. Inflation
    Can they pass on the costs? I think so to a degree, but I think given supply chain constraints, their costs will be rapidly rising and it will be hard to manage price increases.

    4. Stock Holdings
    Their stock holdings have significantly increased, which is good but also bad. Good that they can deliver less out of stocks/shipping delays to customers, but bad in terms of inventory not moving - tricky balance, and to me it flags a lagging in sales. I.e. $46m to $70m, now I assume this is some plush holdings in here, but either way it's a bit risky.

    5. Branding
    I feel like Nick Scali brand has dropped from premium positioning to middle of the market... i.e. not that far away from Plush, so does this erode their positioning, i.e. get squeezed from other players?

    6. Future customers?
    As people become poor due to inflation (cost of living, interest rates etc), surely a new couch purchase will be the first thing that will drop off?
    I think everyone was at home and the wife wanted a new couch during covid, they had extra cash from stimulus, so husband said okay. They were spending time at home anyway during lockups, so why not. Now people are poor/tapped out, and buying a couch vs. feeding their family is probably not a priority. Also, if someone has bought a couch because sales were brought forward, they aren't exactly going to now buy another couch... There will be a void in sales, there always is. I think a lot of places probably bought couches to furnish AIRBNB etc, but as Australians head overseas for holidays and airbnb switch back to rentals, will there be a glut in second hand furniture?

    7. Share Price
    Pre-Covid they were trading sidewards for a number of years at $6-7... now at almost $12. Yes the Plush business would boost the valuation, but not to that degree.....

    I'm concerned about this company, the last thing when people are poor/tapped out is buying a new couch.

    Target price in the medium term is $6.20-$7.30

    Can someone explain to me why this is a great company to invest in? I can't really see the opportunity right now.
 
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