OEL 0.00% 1.3¢ otto energy limited

Whats happen to EJ Pert, page-3

  1. 9,054 Posts.
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    Trading ~9c seems fair for where we're at.
    Its only down ~5% from the recent spike on news/broker reports

    On an FA basis, and going by OELs fwd estimates in the Mar qtr rpt, we should have around $18mil net cash end of June qtr, and ~2P 3.22mmbbls reserves remaining (net to OEL)
    That net cash position being even more achievable given the current higher Brent prices.

    If you value the remaining 2P developed reserves at $25/brl, OEL's underlying value (net cash plus NPV 2P reserves) is ~8.5cps

    Technically, 8.5c has been fairly solid support recently as well.

    If the SC55 farmout doesn't eventuate, a drop to ~8c sp wouldn't surprise me, but I think ~8.5c would be regained fairly soon, especially when there's news on Galoc Nth and/or EAR's.

    As for the chances of luring a farminee, I think they're pretty good. With BHPs USD24.5mil pledged for the first well a new player only has to pony up $25mil to drill Hawkeye, gets the seismic for free, and can have the option to walk away after that.
    Thats a cheap entry for ~60% of the permit.
    Of course, that's bargain basement. OEL might achieve better terms than that if there's more than one interested party.

    We'll see what happens leading up to the SC55 farmout verdict, but for now, it seems to me that holders are reluctant to sell below 9c given there's only minor (temporary ?) downside from there if SC55 news disappoints.
 
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