I re-listened to the ASX CEO Connect with Pauline and noted that...

I re-listened to the ASX CEO Connect with Pauline and noted that they have changed there language from (my paraphrasing) ‘we expect claims to return to historical average’ to ‘we have had a period of net negative claims and we don’t expect this to continue’. I took this to mean they are less sure they will return to historical average and that they simply descriptively say, it unusual for an insurance company not to have claims and we don’t expect this to continue.
In any case, I think it is most likely / more probable than not that claims will remain negative or low for the foreseeable future.
Property prices will be supported by lack of supply, immigration. People will work additional hours if needed. I think it’s more likely GWP will continue to be low and/or the insurance premiums we charge may have to reduce to reflect the lack of risk and/or we take more risky loans to justify the premium. It will be and interesting 12-24 months ahead but I can only see more capital being retuned to share holders over that time. I doubt we will be back into 1.4-1.6 x PCA by end 2024 unless the pay some very large special dividends.