Hey guys, as an HMX shareholder I can only tell you that I follow Carnaby's share price very closely. As I see it, the hype towards 2 dollars was followed by the normal consolidation due to profit-taking. After a 1000% run, we can't blame anyone for taking some profits.
If CNB continues to fall, then I am a buyer - especially around an SP of 1 dollar. However, I don't think the SP will fall that far. On the other hand, I have the feeling that CNB will be back at prices above 2 dollars or more in 12 months' time - that depends very much on the further results that come in.
From a rational point of view, CNB and HMX are hunting for resources in the same area. However, the area that HMX is exploring is much larger than CNB's (which ultimately means nothing if nothing is found there).
HMX has a JORC complaint resource at Kalman - which is not entirely insignificant in the current environment (i.e. prices for copper etc.). Kalman was hardly or not at all considered in HMX's SP (my opinion....).
At the moment, HMX is expecting results from at least 3 different corners in the coming days and weeks. Each corner by itself could be a game changer. I mention Ajax and then, from around mid-April, the drilling of the (re)discovered conductor about 350m from Ajax. In the second half of the year, things will get interesting again when HMX focuses on the south - i.e. in the immediate vicinity of Nil Desperandum (around Revenue mine).
There could be further surprises in the pipeline.Either way, I think that CNB and HMX both still have a long way to go and in both cases the price potential is by far not yet exhausted. CNB is a few steps ahead, I expect HMX to follow.
In the end, it should be clear to all of us that one or more major discoveries in the current environment (geopolitical and due to the upcoming decarbonisation of economies worldwide - see also what US President Biden said yesterday about reducing and eliminating dependence on fossil fuels in the coming years) is a unique opportunity for explorers like CNB or HMX.
From my point of view, this means that an explorer with the appropriate discovery can quickly reach a market capitalisation of around A$ 300-500m - even without having extracted a single kilo of copper or whatever. There are plenty of big crocodiles out there just waiting to "buy" a resource (instead of looking for it themselves).
In a more advanced stage (JORC and everything more or less drilled out), 500m to 1bn are possible. CNB and HMX are both still a long way off.
The mistake with such investments is that many get in far too late and driven by momentum at an SP that is too high at first glance, while others who got in at a lower price sell far too early - they are then happy about the 50% price gain - while perhaps 6 months later one could have tickled out 500%.
If you believe in the story, then you should buy in during weak phases and reduce a little during (exaggerated) strong phases. Or do as I do and build up a position over 2.5 years and then wait........
So good luck to all and have a nice weekend.
DYOR
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