What's happening?, page-25

the north island domestic operations aren’t worth a heap.
so Stockton is looking at EBITDA of 110 Aud this year.

coal reserves at Stockton are 4.5mt. Anyone know what the Stockton organic reserves (hope Lyon etc) are likely to be?

so 35% of 110 = 38mil. I think a fair price would be around 2-3x EBITDA =75-110mil plus would need to pay 50mil of the bt cash balance.

I’d expect the bt cash balance to be around 140 currently -50mil share =90mil remaining which is the mid range.

therefore as you suggested brl are left with a cash balance of around 6mil but 100% ownership of Stockton and therefore EBITDA of around 125mil aud.

I’d say brl should be at least 2 EBITDA which should equate to 250 mil mc in aud or a share price of around 1.5.

this excludes any value in Canada. Realistically Canada is probably worth around 10mil as an option play.

anyone see any errors in my thinking?