whats happenning ???, page-13

Hi (Nihilism),

I don't think the slide of SP today has something to do with the recovery and coal quality of NMR. IMO, It's more related to what Erichmj mentioned, people are selling so that they could re-enter with a low price in case of CR.

Also don't get me wrong, I just try to understand your reasoning here:

1. "recovery of 57% at 1.6 standard gravity is a horrible coal. maximum grade thermal, worth less than 100/tonne AUD."

- You can't compare coal quality with Aussie coal, as they certainly fetch a higher price with a higher quality and better rcovery. We're not talking about cooking coal but thermal coal here...

- comparing to its peers (AFR for example), a recovery of 57% at 1.6 standard gravity is very good.

- "maximum grade thermal, worth less than 100/tonne AUD."

Correct, looking at Helmsec valuation report for AFR (Nov 2011) through peers analysis:
- for sale of washed coal direct to industrial customers:
--> sale price = US$45/t
- for the supply of coal to third party IPP (power stations):
--> sale price = US$25/t
- for the export of quality thermal coal to India
--> FOB price is US$80/t

2. "so even though they have 2.4billion tonne, their operating costs for mining will be 50-60 and 5-10 for washing, their profit margin is slim prior to transport costs, insurances, royalties.. and without a raillink transport would be impossible."

Correct, looking at Helmsec valuation report for AFR (Nov 2011) through peers analysis,

- for sale of washed coal direct to industrial customers:
--> cash cost = US$25/t
- for supply of coal to third party IPP (power stations):
--> cash cost = US$13/t
- for export of quality thermal coal to India
--> cash cost = US$55/t

"so even though they have 2.4billion tonne, their operating costs for mining will be 50-60 and 5-10 for washing, their profit margin is slim prior to transport costs, insurances, royalties.."

So how much do you value NMR...what are your SP projections based on their "slim profit margin"...??

For your information, all the above assumptions have been taken from my SP projections...
click here to see NMR valuation

Cheers,