Curious if you ended up taking a position in NextDC, and what...

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13/05/24

21:38

Post #: 73805423
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Originally posted by Mr.Lumin: ↑

Anyone here compared IFT and NXT?

Personally, I'm invested in IFT... they have a diversity of businesses under their control but just for the sake of it I'll stick to CDC and NXT.

I saw another poster on the IFT forum posted the below, I'm wondering what some NXT followers opinions are on all this... Considering an investment in NXT too but I like to gauge the forums and the quality of investors/posters first.

"It is interesting to note the $4.307B valuation put on CDC (of which Infratil have a 48% stake in), this values CDC at around $8.97B as an entire entity. While NEXTDC, it's most comparable ASX counterpart based on market close today is valued at around $8.63B which isn't far off. After looking across CDC's & NEXTDC's reports there is an interesting disparity in some metrics versus almost similar valuations - I am aware these figures alone don't build an investment thesis but may be of interest to other followers or holders.

*Numbers taken from Infratil's Investor Day 2024 & NEXTDC's FY24 HY Results Presentations

VALUATION
NXT = $8.63B (based on ASX market cap after close on 5th March 2024)
CDC = $8.97B (based on independent asset valuation in Intratil's investor day 2024 report)

TOTAL MW CURRENTLY BUILT
CDC = 268 MW
NEXTDC = 140.9 MW

*CDC has almost two times the amount of MW currently built.

TOTAL MW IN PROGRESS / UNDER CONSTRUCTION
CDC = 382 MW
NEXTDC = 53.4

*CDC has almost six times the amount of MW in progress.

TOTAL PLANNED
CDC = 570 MW
NEXTDC = 971.1 MW

*NEXTDC has almost two times the amount of MW planned for future construction.

Not to shoot down the 'planned' segment of reporting from companies, but I am unsure what 'planned' exactly means e.g. do they have prospective land purchased or lease agreed, do they have building approvals, do they have funding in place to undertake construction? There seems to be a lot of questions that arise when I hear the word 'planned' so I am reserving less judgment for this data point as compared with the others which are known / tangible, but it does give an idea for future growth and capex on the horizon.

One obvious difference and a factor in NEXTDC's larger 'planned' figures is they have started to expand globally into the APAC region, alongside also installing edge data centres in remote mining areas and smaller regional locations which gives them a larger area for 'planned' construction, whilst CDC's portfolio is only within Australia and New Zealand thus far.

I also looked at Macquarie Technology's latest report but it is a little harder to piece apart business segments, and there is less data available to allow me to value just the data centre segment of the business for comparisons sake, hence why I haven't included it above. Another comparison is the private business Airtrunk which has had very large growth within Australia and the APAC region as well, I attempted to factor in their numbers but there is very little information on their website about capacities (there are some, but I am unsure how they factor in built, in progress or planned capacity into their figures). There was an article on the AFR late last year regarding its potential IPO for a valuation of around $10B as well - (Goldman Sachs, Macquarie Capital mandated for AirTrunk $10b-plus IPO (copyright link)) I'd be curious to get proper numbers if there is a prospectus released and see how they compare with the few comparable businesses we have here on the ASX to get better ideas on valuations."

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Curious if you ended up taking a position in NextDC, and what your reasoning was for either choice.

NXT Price at posting: $17.26 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Not Held
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0 Great analysis

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