I'd say the short thesis is based largely on valuation.
They probably also discount the 'fairy' notion most people have about cloud/demand.
Far too many people model based on an agressive fill rate, and don't reassess when the evidence is there to the contrary.
It's not an insatiable demand and as NextDC continues to expand, they take on more debt and operating costs.
There have been atleast 3 major instances so far, that prove the demand is not insatiable.
1. Perth P1 - (for the longest time), it's a small DC thats only finally got some traction in the last 2 years.
2. Canberra C1 - Still out in the wilderness.
3. Melbourne M2 - Has been open for a significant period of time, security constantly have to brush away the tumbleweeds here too.
And yet you have people readily talking about M3?
From an execution point of view I think NextDC dropped the ball on Sydney, while focusing on smaller less significant markets.
This is one of my bones with the company, the other being I don't think they are transparent about the market or how projects are progressing.
Tell us what's happening in individual markets and don't swab us away with marketing hyperbole.
Tell us how construction is progressing. It's now November and S2 is still not complete, and they would have had you thinking it would be finished earlier in the year.
NEXTDC share price is currently lower than it was 18 months ago as a result.
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