We have a reasonable idea on what sort of profits might be...

We have a reasonable idea on what sort of profits might be generated at OP thanks to a scoping study.
$257 mill is the number over the first two years with the 261,000oz of gold recovered assumed by the study.
Since then, positive recovery tests announced yesterday may push the figure up to a minimum of $270mill.
That is using the lower end of yesterdays test results; 88.4% would give an extra 10,472oz.
At today’s POG (AUD 1640) that equates to $17mill or around $14mill after royalties.
That may be conservative because that recovery was achieved using the method that is much cheaper on processing costs and also because the other option (97% recovery) may prove optimal.
I’ll use the $270mill.
Yesterday I showed why I believe it looks likely that an extra 145-180,000oz may be added to the open pit(s).
http://hotcopper.com.au/post_threadview.asp?fid=1&tid=1825237&msgno=8506924#8506924
10,000oz minimum added as a result of improvements in recovery and 135-165,000 through additional veins identified and the likely resultant deepening of the pit. The mid point of the 135-165,000oz is 150,000oz. Adjust for recovered gold by 88.4% recovery gives 133,000oz
If profit from the 261,000oz was 257mill net of capex, then it was $284mill before capex repayment.
Given the very high grades at GH, I think assuming similar cash costs to the scoping study on assumed ounces added this year is fair.
Adding 133,000oz to the 261,000oz should boost the $284mill to $429mill or $402mill after capex repayment.
Adding the $14mill net of royalties calculated above for improved recoveries on the original pit model takes the total up to around $415mill.
That is before income tax.
How much tax is difficult to determine. Carried forward losses plus likely expenditure between now and the end of the first three years of production should keep company tax to a minimum on the original $257mill figure. Tax on the balance may be around $47mill but even this may be minimized by for example investment in Buccaneer to bring it into production.
Allowing for $47mill tax for now, leaves a potential net profit after tax of around $368mill.
I would expect around $60mill more to be spent over the next three years on admin and exploration.
You could deduct that from the $368mill but at the rate we have been adding value so far this year, the $60mill is likely to add value far in excess of $60mill, so I will stick with $368 mill as a fair mid point of what I believe OP is worth net of taxes on what has been found to date only and only to open pit depths.
I also believe it is reasonable to assume u/g mining is likely to be worth a minimum of another $100mill and it is open at depth so potentially could be worth much more.
Open pit only net of taxes $368mill equates to 10.5c.
Allowing for limited u/g mining (of known resources), $468mill equates to 13.3c.
Neither option allows anything for further exploration upside at OP either along strike or at depth and there is clearly strong potential.
Neither option allows for any value for Buccaneer, Hyperion, Kroda or the rest of a very large tenement package.

Re exploration upside;
Yesterday I gave a figure of 30-50,000oz potential for GH (and that is what I used in the numbers above) but suggested that it might be much more.
There is a mineralised zone of between 10ms wide and 30ms wide over the first 50 ms from surface. If the zone is shown to continue down to 100ms at just 10ms wide on average over the 60metre very high grade portion of OP (103g/t in the main vein), and the grade averages just 15g/t in that zone, that would equate to 74,500oz.
If the average width is closer to 20ms (it may bulge again at depth) and still assuming 15g/t average, I get 149,000oz.
Or using 15ms average width and 20g/t average grade would also give 149,000oz.
That’s 100-120,000oz more than the 30-50,000oz I allowed for GH in the calculations above.
It becomes pretty clear why there is still so much upside for exploration potential at Old Pirate.
So much more can so easily be added to the 10.5c-13.3c (open pit only or o/p plus minimal u/g) net of taxes valuation.
Later in the year or early next year we will have some idea on what value we can add for Buccaneer when that scoping study comes out.
Before then I now have a min target of 10.5-13.5c.
I think we will be lucky if we don’t get a takeover offer before long.
There are no similar deposits to this in Australia that I know of at these grades from surface.