what's it worth right now

Lets forget Lani and the future developing drugs and value Biota on Relenza alone right now:

- 1/5/09 GSK said Relenza production would increase to 50 - 60m in 12 to 14 weeks.

- 22/7/09 they would increase it to 190m by the end of 2009. They were also continuing discussions with other companies to produce Relenza.

- Also on 22/7/09 they basically said that all or most Relenza production had been sold as they were dealing with 60 governments. When the pandemic hits the northern winter there will be insufficient stock unless they can get China to produce it.

So making some BIG assumptions re production and sales:

From 1/5/09 they had 5m in stock and during production ramp up for the 7 months to the end of 2009 they get to 60m.

Assuming they reach their target of 190m by the end of 2009 then the next 6 months produce 95m.

So 60 + 95 = 155m

155 * 1.70 = Biota gets about $260m for 09/10 year

175m shares * todays price 1.95 values Biota at $340m

So earnings per share 260 divided 340 = 0.76 cents/share

Or a P/E ratio of 1.3

Given the ASX200 average P/E ratio is about 12

then 12 divided 1.3 = 9.2

9.2 * todays price 1.95 = $17.94

So after all that its worth $17.94 on GSK Relenza production alone.


I understand that the pandemic will/may abate and Relenza production will vary in the future. There have been several assumptions and I'm happy to hear peoples comments but I'm not going to get in a shit fight with anyone.

I am also biased and have Biota shares and would be happy with $10 or am I dreaming.