I prefer the old simple metrics - MC of $60m and EV of $40m ($16m+$4m tax rec).(F/C are just theoretical unless paid out IMO).To value DSK, it's about understanding normalised earnings.The past couple of years are irrelevant as they were clearly over-earning.On the other side because it listed during covid and most in the industry are males they've marked DSK down as a fad - they think gifting is dead and women don't want nice smelling items!But actually in pre-Covid FY19 (the last normalised time) they were doing $9m NPAT from 100 stores and continually growing YoY.They've now increased stores by 50%.With a little bit of operating leverage that's a ballpark normalised $15m NPAT at current store count.That gives current metrics of 4x P/E (with a third covered by cash).On a 70% payout ratio that's 17.5% divi yield or 25% grossed up.Incredible numbers.Then add store growth on top.
So apply whatever multiple you want to normalised earnings.I've said it before: Operating leverage + cyclicality + seasonality are a powerful cocktail.The question is when is normal again?FY24 will likely be tough. That will reinvigorate the bears further.The only thing that matters is that they survive - which they will given cash backing and available facilities in the unlikely event of a strong downturn.So it's more likely a FY25 play. It'll move before then as the market is forward looking. For now, best to switch off (nothing you can do).The market is good on a 6-12 month time horizon but poor beyond that - that's the opportunity.Throw in our new CEO and international expansion and that ups the multiple further.Speaking of which, Vlad started today....
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I prefer the old simple metrics - MC of $60m and EV of $40m...
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Last
91.0¢ |
Change
-0.025(2.67%) |
Mkt cap ! $56.66M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
94.0¢ | 94.0¢ | 90.0¢ | $112.4K | 122.2K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 399 | 91.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
94.0¢ | 19999 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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1 | 399 | 0.910 |
1 | 995 | 0.905 |
2 | 34191 | 0.900 |
2 | 48120 | 0.890 |
2 | 3925 | 0.880 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.940 | 19999 | 1 |
0.960 | 8000 | 1 |
0.980 | 10000 | 1 |
1.000 | 10000 | 1 |
1.010 | 1000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 19/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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