I prefer the old simple metrics - MC of $60m and EV of $40m ($16m+$4m tax rec).(F/C are just theoretical unless paid out IMO).To value DSK, it's about understanding normalised earnings.The past couple of years are irrelevant as they were clearly over-earning.On the other side because it listed during covid and most in the industry are males they've marked DSK down as a fad - they think gifting is dead and women don't want nice smelling items!But actually in pre-Covid FY19 (the last normalised time) they were doing $9m NPAT from 100 stores and continually growing YoY.They've now increased stores by 50%.With a little bit of operating leverage that's a ballpark normalised $15m NPAT at current store count.That gives current metrics of 4x P/E (with a third covered by cash).On a 70% payout ratio that's 17.5% divi yield or 25% grossed up.Incredible numbers.Then add store growth on top.
So apply whatever multiple you want to normalised earnings.I've said it before: Operating leverage + cyclicality + seasonality are a powerful cocktail.The question is when is normal again?FY24 will likely be tough. That will reinvigorate the bears further.The only thing that matters is that they survive - which they will given cash backing and available facilities in the unlikely event of a strong downturn.So it's more likely a FY25 play. It'll move before then as the market is forward looking. For now, best to switch off (nothing you can do).The market is good on a 6-12 month time horizon but poor beyond that - that's the opportunity.Throw in our new CEO and international expansion and that ups the multiple further.Speaking of which, Vlad started today....![]()
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Last
84.0¢ |
Change
0.005(0.60%) |
Mkt cap ! $52.30M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
83.0¢ | 86.0¢ | 80.5¢ | $82.73K | 99.73K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 44025 | 83.0¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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85.0¢ | 9901 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
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3 | 44025 | 0.830 |
1 | 500 | 0.820 |
1 | 3600 | 0.810 |
1 | 28571 | 0.805 |
3 | 25250 | 0.800 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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0.850 | 9901 | 1 |
0.860 | 10293 | 2 |
0.865 | 1000 | 1 |
0.870 | 1807 | 1 |
0.885 | 16418 | 2 |
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