I must have posted what its worth in my humble opinion 20 times...

I must have posted what its worth in my humble opinion 20 times in this thread :)
For your benefit, I shall cut and paste again - pls add your thoughts and opinions - There have been no material changes to my knowledge since the PDS and capital raising back in Sep/Oct 2008 - other than sentiment...

Pasted from 19/2/09:

Write-down of 700m hit on the Europe JV, and 450m hit on core assets and 250m on other assets. Lets call it 1.4b in total.

They also announced a paper loss of 900m on derivatives and various hedges - but are at pains to point out that this does not affect any of their covenants. Im not quite sure how to account for it, other than take it off equity for the purpose of NTA calcs, and I will ignore it for the purpose of gearing% calcs.

Assets: 14bn
Writedowns: 1.4bn
Debt: 4.7bn

Net Assets: 14 - 1.4 - 4.7 = 7.9b
Equity Adjustment: 0.9b
Equity: 7b

Gearing = 4.7/(14-1.4) = 37.3%
They are saying its closer to 33% so we'll have to see their accounts when they come out...

NTA = about 7bn / 4bn shares = 1.75 and then apply their cap rate of 50bps lowers it to about $1.52.

Personally, I think wipe off all of the BNB JV... which takes a further 1.2b off assets making the calc something like: 5.8b /4b shares = $1.45, and apply cap rate of 50bps gives about $1.26.

Doesn't seem to matter at the moment - noone will really believe their valuations - the proof of value is a buyer for current assets - when they find that buyer and announce a sell price, we'll know if the 11% writedowns they are quoting are full of hot air. I personally believe that assets are 20-30% less than they are valued at.

Nonetheless, I also believe there is ALOT more value in the stock. I think at least $1 by any rational valuation I am able to perform.