@mustpow
The fundamental value of PLS is beyond question. I have been in commodities for a long time.
FACTS:
1. PLS is the largest single owner of a lithium deposit globally. Greenbushes is shared between two owners.
2. It is the lowest cost producer globally even when compared to brine operations. Check lithium thread for my commentary there.
3. The tantalum credits are less at risk than the potash credits that the Brine Lithium producers rely on. Well not just rely on but potash is 84% to 96% of their revenue and production from Brine....
4. Demand is evident in first offtake with several more to come. One more to be announced in next 2 weeks based on Ken media releases. Further Mac Bank report was completed before several Giga Factories were announced. For example - VW 15.5 billion....
5. Lithium prices since when you first started saying that the commodity price would drop have risen from 450/t 6% concentrate in the pre-feasibility study to more than 1,200/t for 6% concentrate and are continuing to rise. I expect this effect to become more pronounced as more factories realize they need to secure supply in both the short / medium and long term creating an even more pronounced price spike.
6. Lithium Ion batteries have been around since 1990.... that is how long it has taken for manufacturers / government support / consumer acceptance to take place. Any new technology while may have a shorter period to market will still have a long pathway to get to market. I would estimate a minimum of 10 years.
7. Abundance of contractors / infrastructure etc. from the previous iron ore boom.
8. Australian laws and regulations. It means transactions are enforceable something that is really important if you have spent hundreds of millions on a processing factory.
9.
Low iron content / does not have magnesium issues that a lot of new brine plays will have.
It appears PLS is also sitting on a substantial amount of tech grade lithium (even higher pricing) which I expect the next offtake to be for.
10. ORE / ALB / FMC / etc. have all failed to ramp up to meet existing demand. You figures saying the market is oversupplied is total nonsense and it evident in the increasing price of lithium.
So... many more positives...
Ok... the big boogy man.... water.....
THEY HAVE 1 YEAR TO SORT IT OUT. IT AFFECTS NOTHING IN THE SHORT TERM.
I am sure with one year to sort it out some sort of agreement or alternative arrangement can be made.
From my experience these meteorites of really important information have established a short position that they are trying to work hard on retail. Why suddenly show up right now and go so hard... got to have a motivation right....
Best of luck with that... you are going into 2+ major announcements by PLS within the next 4 to 6 weeks....
Cheers,
Super Ninja
(20min delay)
