Current hard coking contracts are for $140/tonne. And forecasts...

Current hard coking contracts are for $140/tonne. And forecasts for next 5 years are not any different.

One thing I have learned is that 5 year forecasts for commodity prices are next to useless.

If you'd said you though HCC would be at $140/t in 2007 you'd have been laughed out of town, and the same in early 2012.

So I wouldn't be locking $7/t margin into COK for the next five years just yet.

The most important thing, as you hinted at, is where Baralaba fits on the quartile distribution. It seems to be a first-quartile PCI project which, if true, should see it through. Because as the third and even second quartile projects start to go loss-making and shut down, that will put upward pressure on the price.

The question is whether the company can survive long enough to see this turnaround. It's not looking good.