I think to be honest, Tom has been caught out over promising and underdelivering on several occasions now, so according to that Podcast, he’s probably acknowledging that and swapping round his new mantra to underpromise and over deliver.
Apart from the delays to advertised events like Rafa Partner = ‘24 season appraisal/test and SA TO party, I think the biggest mistake has been to not restart Ungani already. It looks better to prospective partners (as was case with ROC following the previous once in an epoch cyclone.) And if a partner doesn't sign up, we are selling 100% boats with 75k bbls at A$120/b for A$9m or at A$133/b, a nice round A$10m sales revenue. Do that a few times a year and 100% of the operating profit can fund a load of other stuff. Really, the only point of an Ungani partner that shares that sales revenue is to free carry development, or at least a major cash injection then split drilling costs. We now know (as of yesterday) a preferred Ungani partner is now in an exclusivity period diligently doing their due diligence, so hopefully it will all come together rapidly now. Still, I hope they are bringing a wad of cash and we aren’t underselling it, or they bring something else to the equation, like they are a likely contender for Shallow and/or maybe Rafa itself.
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