FFX 0.00% 20.0¢ firefinch limited

What's the ashes worth to FFX shareholders ?

  1. 116 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 15
    Today's announcement has sucked any remaining optimism out of the FFX tribe, of which I am in the tribe but was never optimistic.
    The Malian government (junta) has held a gun at the LLL/FFX directors and said Ganfeng in, Aussies out. Here's the price or you effectively get nationalised for nil consideration. The Directors have had no choice but to blink and sign. They have had to breach ASX rules as its better to have part of something than all of nothing. Any posts re the Directors playing tough are misguided on teh options they faced.
    The 5% sale to Ganfeng effectively pays for the USD 60m MoU payment (otherwise known as a bribe in ths country) and LLL sells its remaining 40% to Ganfeng for USD342m plus some royalties. Don't assume LLL will see the royalty payments as the Malian govt or Ganfeng can change the rules at a later date. But they might not.
    So Ganfeng (China) now owns the 5th largest lithium spodumene mine in the world which is coming on line in September for less than USD900 million based on the last 40% sale price. The Malian junta probably also get some form of support from China to ensure they stay in power (follow the horse called self interest) and China get access to boat loads of lithium every day for the next 20 years. Watch out Elon (but that's another story).
    FFX is coughing up AUD 11.5m of our AUD36m in cash to release ourselves from all liabilities. So we are down to AUD 25m in cash plus a 17% share in LLL.
    So assuming an inspecie distribution of LLL shares (211m shares), given FFX is about to be delisted and that's the only liquidity event for shareholders, we get a notional 17% of the Ganfeng proceeds (43 cents) which are theoretically worth 7.6 cents. AUD 25m split between 1.2b FFX shares is another 2 cents.
    But that's a max valuation as
    1. the proceeds are subject to currency risk
    2. They are still not "in the bank", and subject to any other Malian/Ganfeng collusion or change of rules
    3. There will be a lot more sellers than buyers if/when LLL comes out of suspension.

    Given desire for liquidity by the LLL shareholders (12,000) and FFX shareholders (12,000), noting many hold shares in both, FFX shareholders will be liquidating for 5 cents at best. Another 2 cents in distribution if we're lucky gets us to 7 cents.
    It's something, but it's ugly, but every person has a price for their emancipation. Ours has been very expensive and drawn out.

    Keen to read other thoughts on my maths/logic.
 
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