Nil chance the yield won't drop. For a start rates in general...

Nil chance the yield won't drop. For a start rates in general were dropping pre Corona regardless. Even allowing for this, for the yield to stay steady would require all 143 borrowers to keep paying their interest. Taking into account management fees, one could probably very roughly work out how many would have to stop paying for fund cash flow to go negative. At that point asset backing will start slowly dropping. The way things are going, I would be ecstatic if non-payment of interest was the only problem. With an average loan duration of 2.6 years we could get back most of our $2 in three years time. For someone buying now at $1.30 the return would theoretically be 15% pa.

Unfortunately the real problem is going to be defaults on capital. Not only will the compulsory provision for each loan default directly impact NTA, but if history is a guide, legal proceedings over who gets what in a wind-up situation could go on for years. How many loans will default is anybodies guess at this point.

Extremely difficult to compare buying MTX or bank shares. MTX is a trust holding short term commercial mortgages whereas a bank is more a holder of long term residential mortgages plus a fee taker on various other business services. What is likely is that when things improve that the banks will move up first.

With regard to your final comment, I think 'capital stable except when the economy crashes' is more appropriate.