HRR (ASX) What's the future look like for Heron post-raising

Originally posted by markf17 ↑

The DFS calculated the NPV using steady state annual production revenue of $A282 mill exchange rate of $0.71 zinc price $US1.0, copper $US3.00 plus lead, silver and gold prices at the time. Using current metal prices and todays exchange rate the revenue is coincidentally $A282 mill. But the silver steam agreement means HRR will be paid only 20% of the market price for 75% of silver production. This drops the annual revenue by about $A11m.
The chart towards the back of the DFS shows NPV is highly sensitive to falls in revenue. By my calculation the fall in the silver income drops the NPV to $A183m.
The DFS calculation of NPV is based on capital expenditure of $A163m. The assumption is the $A163m is repaid to third party entities. In the new funding agreement only $US60m ($A78m) is borrowed and has to be repaid the balance is equity funding. So in terms of the DFS $163 - $78 = $A85m goes in as equity and does not need to be repaid. For a rough approximation it is reasonable to add the $A85m to the $A183m NPV at current metal prices. So the project with only $A60m debt funding at current metal prices and exchange rate has a NPV of about $183 +$85 = $A268m.
There will be 2417m shares on issue so the NPV per share is 11c.
I bought shares 12 months ago on the basis the NPV was much higher than the EV. The funding package means the original project does not have much upside. The project funders must be relying on higher metal prices and increasing resources for upside. I will not participate in the SPP unless metal prices increase over next couple of months.

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Good post. Thanks for sharing calculations.

The new cornerstones may be optimists on Poz but I wouldn't entirely discount the possibility they're also expecting a imminent resource expansion at Woodlawn. Assay results for G2/G2 Hanging Wall Lenses are due in the next 2 weeks. Shallow mineralisations could augment cashflows and aren't currently factored into financial modelling.

A resource upgrade prior to the close of the SPP would obviously be fantastic for current retail investors.