fy2015 ev/ebitda of 5.9 vs average of 10
fair value equal to todays closing price assumes average eps of 15c with 0% growth over 10 years (10% discount rate)
analyst eps estimates sit between 11 and 13 for 2015/2016/2017 vs myers long term average of 16.5c
these estimates suggest that the current share price might still be overvalued
yet analysts are also forecasting a small increase in sales growth each year and a sizeable decline in net margin
if earnings continue to miss targets then less cash will be available for shareholders
dividend would be reduced but they could still manage a reasonable 4% yield worst case (if you bought today)
if share price fell then this would only increase
but lets assume the absolute worst and play around with liquidation value..
to get a 5 year liquidation value of $1.32 you would have to write off 75% asset value (assuming constant rate of decline from the peak of the business cycle)
if shorts manage to push the price down through $1.30 support then the case for a myer long starts to build
factor in the possibility for a takeover and you could have one of the few viable contrarian plays
unfortunately i have a meeting in 5 minutes and have to rush my finish - gl to anyone jumping in early
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Last
82.0¢ |
Change
-0.035(4.09%) |
Mkt cap ! $686.7M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
85.5¢ | 86.0¢ | 82.0¢ | $450.3K | 542.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 47000 | 81.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
82.5¢ | 1035 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
3 | 47000 | 0.815 |
4 | 134250 | 0.810 |
1 | 6211 | 0.805 |
1 | 8800 | 0.800 |
2 | 8797 | 0.790 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.830 | 4481 | 2 |
0.840 | 10000 | 1 |
0.845 | 6211 | 1 |
0.850 | 1120 | 1 |
0.855 | 12015 | 2 |
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