SSG 0.74% $1.34 shaver shop group limited

What's the next step for Shaver Shop ?

  1. 4,454 Posts.
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    No guidance for H2, but a lot of positive elements so far :
    - 1 Jan 2021- 11 Feb 2021 : + 17.3 % for sales, with gross margin comparable to the same period last year,
    - acquisition of their last 6 remaining franchised shops on 3 Feb 21, with a full year impact of 1.5 to 1.6 m on a full year basis,
    - 27 consecutive month of like for like sales growth at the end of March 21,
    - still good on line traffic in April (according to Similarweb) despite a high basis of comparison.

    So what are the risks/main unknown for H2 ?
    - sales in shops may be affected by the lockdown in Victoria (where they have around 20 % of their stores) and a traffic quite poor for malls in urban areas (see recent announcement of The Reject Shop),
    - need to increase inventories due to shipping problems ?
    Regarding the risk of poor sales in shops, it can be mitigated by 2 elements :
    - a weak basis of comparison for shops from the end of March,
    - and a good performance for their shop sales during H1 despite a "customer foot traffic decline in most centers we operate across Australia and NZ".

    Overall, it is not obvious to understand why the stock remains so cheap.
    Once again, the company has done well :
    - before covid,
    - during the first phase of covid (mainly thanks to the e-commerce business),
    - so the question now is how the company is going to manage a period where e-commerce is normalizing and shop sales remain uncertain.
    This is the situation where they have been since the end of March. So H2 is going to be a major test for them and will probably be the key for further rerating for the stock.

    Apart the stability of their earnings during H2, the other major question is their next phasis of investment.
    It is not obvious to see where the company is going to invest its cash and free cash flow, now that it has finished to buy back its franchisees.
    Looking at the different options, SSG is cautious about opening new stores in Australia (in fact closing some stores), probably due to the traffic problems in shopping centers. So far, it looks also quite reluctant to do a major acquisition or develop overseas (except in NZ).
 
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$1.34
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$1.33 $1.34 $1.32 $168.1K 126.6K

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