what's the real odds of success at cua lo b105

Just reflecting on the basis of the odds of success at Cua Lo B105.

I know the derisking issue has been mentioned before.

But, with the technical knowledge gained from the 3D etc and a five tier target structure it would seem highly probable that we'll hit some hydrocarbons at some level ie the odds would be strongly in our favour, 3:1 maybe more? We'd be very unlucky not to hit anything.

So it would appear the real risk focusses on commerciality - volumes, porosity and quality.

Volume: Based on company reports (the graphics & 3D etc) they have selected the biggest and most promising target/s first up. Compared to the adjacent Dongfang 13-2 it certainly looks like a sizeable even bigger field.

Quality: This issue seems to have been addressed as good as we can get through the analogue reference to adjacent Dongfang 13-2 field.

Porosity: Once again, you'd be guided by known rock formations in adjacent fields and their continuity through the region.

For me it's been derisked to death. While nothing in life is 100% certain, this is looking more like a matter of a technical confirmation drill rather than a wildcat strike.

I think the Dongfang well is the key, with odds of 13:2 in our favour of successful confirmation at Cua Lo!