Its as high as 60-70% in my opinion. I believe there is a small or minority chance that the well will prove uneconomic. Additionally, NSAI estimates were based on 2D data from only two of the five prospective zones. The resource will be bigger than anticipated (certainly above the 'best' est) provided.
To NEN, I value the cua lo well at ~$0.50ps. B105 is worth ~$0.80 in aggregate. I see the stock trading somewhere in the region of 60-80c on a successful outcome.
NEN Price at posting:
32.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held