sads
howabout this for a punt
the 'independent' report earlier this year estimated the npv of atc based on dcf @ $150-225M
its pretty easy to come up with a simple spreadsheet npv based on the numbers used in that report, and to update them a year...
doing that, being 1 yr closer to such a cash flow, gives an additional about $50M by end 2009
increasing the p(success) to 0.95 from 0.9 because of the progress and data in last yr adds another $25M
similar guesstimates of a npv of $50M for the integrase preclinical deal
add them all up = $275-350M
which puts us at 40c...
the upside to this valuation is mostly related to the 'conservative' estimates used in the 'independent' report (like selling price, sales, royalty...) and how good the deal/partner is at fdc etc
and also how soon the cash flow starts (when to market), with the ind report assuming mid-2012, and that now possibly being much sooner
by the time atc reaches market, my simple dcf npv comes up with another 10-15c in sp, and another 10-15c in sp when at peak sales...
glta
sadshowabout this for a puntthe 'independent' report earlier...
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