SDL (ASX) Whats the signal?

Originally posted by jayneen ↑

Westcott:
"If SDL are not going to survive, I see no chance for anyone else. China will not allow others to survive either. They will hold up other projects and take them over."
This is ridiculous. Demonstrates perfectly how you can only see the world through SDL coloured glasses. Sooner or later the iron ore deposits of West and Central Africa will be exploited. This may be long long after SDL has come and gone. The deposits are geological not corporate.
SDL is NOT the key to the region. Belinga is the largest deposit. Core's Avima deposit is larger than SDL's Mbalam (and mineable in one deposit in one country).
If the note holders had called their debts (instead of extending) SDL would already be dead and buried and the region would still be exactly where it is today in terms of the funding and construction of future supply.
To quote you the regional story is about the projects, the iron ore, the governments, the funders, and the infrastructure.
Also you continue to use "China" as if it is a person/corporation or one central decision maker. It isn't.
That said, if "China" has a strategy for the region it is not dependent and may not even be reactive to SDL or any of the other small players in the region. SDL is a small Australian company with an insignificant market cap and a wounded capital structure with a dwindling interest in the region.
In my opinion SDL will come and go long before the regional story is told.
"China" is also talking to the **onese about Belinga.
"China" is also talking to Core Mining.
The real problem is that for any mining company it is simply not possible to mine and sell iron ore at a profit from this region in a sub US$40/t China landed iron ore price market. This is a problem that this thread continues to ignore and it is fundamental to any value assessment of SDL or any project in the region. If the iron ore price has reset to a stable level below US$40/t (and market dynamics and supply scale volumes would indicate it has) then you are all dreaming if you think there is any value here for a mining company.
Its a story for the next iron ore boom and that may be many years away.
And SDL has a time bomb ticking away inside called note holder debt.
Can you hear it? Tick tick tick tick.....
J9

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Hi jayneen.

One other item. May 28th 2014. Africa CEO Forum.
Mines Minister Regis Immongaul Tatagani said last week that the Government aimed for exploration to begin in 2024-2025. He confirmed that it was committed to exporting the iron ore via a railway line to **on's new deep sea port at Port-Gentil from Belinga.

Westcott.