Whats the signal?, page-97

Westcott,
Firstly I have never said that you: "have no idea about investing" or "are not a good investor". I have said I believe you are manipulating information to send an inaccurate picture. Yet again you are mixing false accusations with false information that I have said things I have not. Perhaps you could do some research on what I actually have said. I have said that you have not invested wisely in SDL and are influencing people to make unwise investment choices.
With regard to the need for me to do research what makes you so confident that I am uninformed? Perhaps you should develop some curiosity as part of your own research activities.
I am fully aware of all the public information you have presented in your three replies to me above. As usual it does not change my comments or opinions at all. Replying to my opinions with your own Wikipedia based research does not prove anything. You claim I am getting it wrong. What am I getting wrong Westcott? The fact that the **on Minister of Mines is saying Belinga might produce first ore in 2025 is irrelevant to everything I posted. You remain the wild captain replying to the claim of ice berg danger with facts about the horsepower of the engines. The railway can do 100MTpa. Really? Can it really really Westcott? Tell me more! What does Wikipedia say about the jazz band at the port?
The information that has changed my opinion has been the assessment of value of the 2% residual interest in the infrastructure. This is something I had previously ignored as irrelevant and is actually interesting new information. You may note that it is useful to be capable of reading and evaluating different points of view.
FACTS:
- Avima is one deposit.
- Belinga is the largest iron ore deposit in the Congo basin.
Your questions:
Belinga is the Largest Deposit? Yes Westcott it is. I understand that you may be limited by what you read on google, but I am not. SRK estimate the resource potential of Belinga to be between 6 and 10 BILLION tonnes of DSO grade iron ore. It is the monster of the region that dwarfs all the other deposits. This is also the assessment of the BRGM reports from the 1950s which provide an early geological map of the region. The SRK assessment is based on all the geological work to date including the early French drilling, work completed by Vale and the Russians, and the limited Chinese work.
How much drilling has been done at Belinga? No idea, but I do know that SRK have all the historical drilling data and also the updated highly accurate geophysical survey data.
What are the JORC figures for Belinga iron ore? None. JORC is an Australian geological standard which is extremely useful. However, I am not worried about JORC when assessing the size (give or take several Billion tonnes) and quality of a large DSO deposit which has been studied and tested by geologists for more than 60 years. BTW you may like to consider that the ONLY deposit that "China" have actually invested in in the region was Belinga.
What proof do you have of China talking to Core Mining? No proof. I would be amazed if they are not. Mbalam is not the ONLY deposit in the region that interests "China".
What has todays prices got to do with whether SDL's projects are profitable? Seriously Westcott! Todays prices are relevant because they give the best guide on future prices. They are relevant for financing and they are relevant for assessing the future market price. My comment was that the real problem is that for any mining company it is simply not possible to mine and sell iron ore at a profit from this region in a sub US$40/t China landed iron ore price market. I also said that if the iron ore price has reset to a stable level below US$40/t (and market dynamics and supply scale volumes would indicate it has) then we are all dreaming if we think there is any value here for a mining company. Todays prices (sub US$40/t) are VERY relevant to assessing future prices. I was also not just talking about current prices - it looks to me like the market has reset around a new long term price sub $40. You seem to be alone in thinking that the iron ore price in 3 years time has NO relevance to todays price or to the market forces and supply side strength that is driving an ongoing and continuing slide in prices. It appears that the price is heading to the marginal cost of the the majors and that it may stay there for some time. This not a guess or a wild claim. It is actually the science that you claim to adhere to: Research.
I have answered your questions. Let me ask you one:
What iron ore price do you think SDL needs to successfully finance and profitably operate an iron ore mine at Mbalam?
J9