ATS australis oil & gas limited

it's a valid opinion but it looks like you're "glass...

  1. 816 Posts.
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    it's a valid opinion but it looks like you're "glass half empty" while we are "glass half full".

    The Eagle Ford was a similar position for Aurora, it took 8 years for the market to realise the value. Aurora also partnered with Hilcorp/Marathon back in the day, and still managed to realise its shareholder value. At that time Aurora rallied on the back of activity in the area which I expect can happen in the TMS.

    Also key is the acreage cost - Eagle Ford was a couple of hundred per acre when Aurora got in, went up to about 60k by the end.

    I'm not at all saying you're wrong - I'm just pointing out that there are similarities to how Aurora played out. There were plenty of challenges and yet a really good outcome in the end.

    I can't talk to the drilling, apart from that agree there were some operational performance issues 18 months ago, but would like to see drilling recommence and hope lessons learned can improve the process.

    You also have to consider what's playing into favour. Texas shale is largely done under Biden - drilling permits won't be issued. Operators / Drillers won't just shut up shop, they'll look to other potential plays. TMS is a prime target for those companies who are willing to take on some risk.

    I believe oil will come into a bull run once we have a vaccine rolled out, which will increase appetite.

    I got in last year as I believed The fundamentals from a FA point of view were enticing, and that was at 14c. Covid has certainly put a dent in that and I'll be writing off next years financials and looking to 2021 to review. But even with what they're getting out the ground now, there's value. I genuinely don't think Management will sit on their hands while the current wells deplete. I think there's plenty of time and water under the bridge to make this work.
 
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