Classic case of the baby being thrown out with the bathwater, IMO.
The fundamentals going forward are still the same:
-POG in AUD is $1396 (higher than it was in July)
-KRM closer to full production than what it was in July (due to hit full production in 2 weeks)
-derisked better than July
-all-in sustainable cost (AiSC) the same as July
-profit margin the same as July
-mining closer to rich Splay vein than it was in July.
The SP has dropped from 55c to the current 37.5c , IMO,
due to general market bearish sentiment and instos
generally selling down their gold stocks because of perceived
margin squeeze.
Locals such as NCM has an all-in sustainable cost (AISC)
of about $1080 US ($1277 AUD) are marginally profitable
while a low cost producer like KRM with an AISC of $700 US
($795 AUD) are still very profitable but this is a case where
MR Market is not differentiating between the two.
KRM is a relatively illiquid stock (nominal turnover of about 250K/day)
and an extra 200k sales in a day can also have a significant impact
on SP. The converse is also true when there is buying pressure.
The two key dates are:
(a) confirmation of full production throughput in mid Oct
(b) Sept quarterlies at end of OCT.
Even at the conservative 40K AU forecast for FY 14-15, KRM's NPAT should be
$24 mil or an EPS of 6.7c.
If KRM produces say another 12 K ozs AU due to the Splay vein then the extra
10K ozs ($14 mil AUD) should go to the bottom line which would be an extra 3.8 c EPS.
(total EPS of 10.5 c). With a conservative P/E of 10, this, IMO, should take the SP
to over $1
Cheers
Moorookamick
PS: all of this of course is IMO only and investors should do their own research and consult
a licensed financial planner before investing. MM.
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Last
3.5¢ |
Change
-0.002(5.41%) |
Mkt cap ! $26.33M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
3.7¢ | 3.7¢ | 3.5¢ | $9.931K | 278.1K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 94348 | 3.5¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
3.9¢ | 9107 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 94348 | 0.035 |
2 | 585714 | 0.034 |
2 | 650000 | 0.033 |
1 | 41660 | 0.032 |
1 | 19999 | 0.031 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.039 | 9107 | 1 |
0.040 | 147598 | 2 |
0.043 | 459999 | 2 |
0.050 | 175001 | 2 |
0.052 | 60000 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 03/09/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
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