What's your target?, page-115

Foggy, i was just throwing it out there.

My reckoning was that we secured extra acreage at around USD27/ac. (~AUD36) and, in PB's words when asked why they had spent all that extra money on a 'maybe',

"...at those prices, we only have to see the chance of success at one half of one percent, for it to be a screaming buy..."​

So to extrapolate a little, Paul sees our value (i guess in contingent resource format) at around AUD7000/ac. Or, on a fully optioned 400k acres, a MC of ~AUD2.8b (an SP around $0.55).

A suitor taking an early punt would want a big big discount on realised potential. I just called it 50%, to pluck a number, so that was where my 0.25-0.30 SP came from, if that were achievable in the next 12mths.

To reject that, I would be wanting a minimum 50% appreciation on every offer for every 12mths after that, so the questions i ask myself are;

1. Where will POO be in 12/24/36/48mths time
2. What is the revised CoS with full field development
3. Is there a buyout number that DW/PB would be happy with to service their personal ambition(s).

The sustained effort these blokes have put in has been substantial and prolonged. And remember, at say $0.25-$0.30, DW's nett worth from this venture alone would top AUD20m.

A hard number for him to walk away from in my book, in the hope that another, more robust offer might arrive sometime in the future, but requiring another whole batch of energy and dedication.

So, that "low-ball' number for me is where i'd think this might be worth to a potential buyer, following a successful Icewine 2 outcome, and without us having to go to the 4 well pad development that no doubt will require further dilution of some sort.

The more we are able to progress this, the more the play is worth, clearly. At some point in time though, i believe the numbers put in front of us will be too big to ignore, and our risk/reward position will be closed out.

"Chicken feed" perhaps Foggy, and sure i'd like a dollar plus.
But i'd take 25c tomorrow.

Let's just get past flow.

​