What's your target?, page-116

Valuation is based on actual earnings PLUS potential earnings based on the underlying asset. We are on the brink of testing the flow rates. We may even get insights into likely decline rates and implied EUR (though clearly that will depend on the type of production wells eventually deployed). Hence we will have less uncertainty on likely economics of extraction. If the number is anywhere near the currently modeled P50-mid scenarios, then at current oil prices, profit after state taxes and royalties will be in excess of $7 per barrel. Obviously if the modeled cost is lowered and/or the price of oil is higher, then this number grows quite rapidly.

And that is per barrell. Anyone following the story so far knows that we are talking about multiples of billion extractable from the HRZ, within our now expanded acreage. Another billion or so possibly residing in conventional oil traps above the HRZ and potentially extractable at better economics than the HRZ. Nothing residing under the tundra has changed much since bipeds commenced roaming its surface, but our understanding of what lies beneath and how it can be extracted is progressing by leaps and bounds, particularly in recent months. And is continuing. Which is driving our value.

So, a valuation of $4.5b is indeed a 'haha', as you so eloquently put it. In due time it could be 2-3 times that amount......at a minimum. The levels of uncertainty around this 2-3 year projection will be far less, in a couple of months time. All IMO.