WHC Post Aquisition - 4 year forecast

Finally spent some good time working through the numbers, obviously, alot rides on the coal pricing holding up medium term but my view has always been an acquisition at the right pricing was going to be an absolute company maker / extremely accretive for WHC medium-term... It looks like management has pulled off a masterstroke given the current thermal pricing and no dilution with an acquisition of this size

Guess we will only know in 4 years' time how it shapes up but come 2028 this is going to be an absolute cash-earning beast - patience is going to pay off and for the record, I will be heavily buying dips

- have assumed cost of debt at 10% PA
- debt fully repaid by cashflow over 3 year period
- peak net debt exposure ~$700m AUD forecast at settlement - interest calculated on full amount
- maintained pause March 2024 (as per terms of bridging loan) before recommencing 32c half for 2 years
- increased dividend to 50c share from year 3
- profit after tax of around $500m per quarter prior to revenue sharing washup for first 3 years
- assumed cost increases in line with inflation
- assumed annual sales in line with the current production
- long term FX rate 70c
- full revenue share is paid to BHP
- continues of the run off of the reservation scheme
- factors increased royalties

Sorry for anyone not running a widescreen monitor but wanted to run the forecast over the full 4 year payback period, with the below showing pretty comfortable maintenance of a conservative dividend with alot of room for upside at the back end of the cashflow - basically next 4 years dividend should easily equal $3.5 or 50% of the current share price

Basically, we transform from earning roughly $100m post tax a quarter to $500m post tax a quarter should met and thermal prices hold around these levels which is just an insane drop in the EBIT multiple

Obviously I am bullish and heavily overweight on the stock so DYOR