when do they know? seriously?, page-33

Hi Samson, if we do "close the gap" and retrace, the price points of interest imo are 34.5 (a day or so) followed by 36 very shortly thereafter. If we get there, I would be confident of going a lot higher as the patterns tend to elongate to my eyes.

Unfortunately, the "coiled spring" I referred to last Wednesday broke the next day on 15 mill and the 36.5 horizontal band that kept us intact after the 38 sell off was violated. (* A coiled spring is when the volumes start drying up and the trading range compresses into a band. This then will break one way or another and unfortunately for us, it is down)

It was strange that the 38 double topped and didnt follow through. There was no commentary on Hot Copper about this just the same old drums being beat. A shame as investing has many more sides to it that can alert us to issues ahead.

If you notice on the Sundance chart and many many charts (maybe they are self fulfilling prophecies, who knows) but "gaps" - where stocks dont have a fluid move but have clean air between price points do tend to fill.

The other positive point is that if we finish on a higher low to the last important low, that will be a bullish sign and investors will get back on very quickly.

There is some "insto" like activity, more reminiscent of what I am used to seeing so it will get interesting.

I posted late last week that we were going to 32 or 38 - from the set up last week pretty quickly.

What is interesting is that the selling momentum started last Thursday. If you look at the chart it is pretty clear when it broke and the volume accompanying it. I didnt like it at the time but like many of us, hoped that it was maybe some local nervousness. Trouble is that these things can then snowball, stop losses are triggered, buyers stand back, margined players get nervous etc...

The reason the market IMO has dropped is that the coiled spring set up is indicative of a drying up of buyers and sellers. So it is pretty easy for a move to take some ground as there is very little in its path - until it hits a new point of equilibrium (such as a gap) and reverses quickly.

It doesn't necessarily need a news event to drive it.