BLA blue sky alternative investments limited

Personally I think buying the shares at this point in time is...

  1. 236 Posts.
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    Personally I think buying the shares at this point in time is speculation not investing. Whilst it is possible that as RAllen says, there could be some catalyst for share price appreciation, there's also a good chance that this business doesn't exist in its current form in 2-3 years.

    One thing that is playing on my mind is the scope of the profit downgrade. Before the Glaucus report they forecast NPAT of $34-36m for the current FY. After Glaucus the number is $20-25m. This implies that due to just one quarter of no new dealflow that profits drop by between $9-16m. Annualise this number and you very quickly get to a situation where if they can't do any new deals for a whole year, NPAT is at best zero and more likely a loss.

    Plus as others have pointed out, without any new dealflow or very serious cost reductions the business will run out of cashflow within the next 2-3 years and that's not even considering the debt situation...
 
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