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78.0¢ avz minerals limited

How about seeing only half of the project.AVZ with 100 %...

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Deepp

197 Posts.

47

21/11/21

07:52

Post #: 57729118
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Originally posted by Roon-Aus: ↑

While this may have been asked facetiously by the mouse, to elicit wild responses, I'll answer it honestly.

It must be remembered that once we cede 24% of Dathcom to CATH, a 1$ valuation would be placing the project value at somewhere in the region of 7.5 billion AUD - roughly on par with PLS' current price as a producing, cashflow generating play in a buoyant lithium market. So that's a high hurdle to cross for an outfit at our stage of the development cycle.

In saying that, with the superior resource of Manono - once the project is more de-risked I could see these kind of valuations being reached, even prior to production. To reach 1$+ I would expect most if not all of the following milestones to have been ticked off:

- ML
- BFS
- Collab agreement
- 10mpta throughput SS / DFS
- SEZ
- FID
- EPC Vendor contracted
- Mine construction commenced
- Additional project equity secured from DRC government (up to +15%, to AVZ 66% holding of Dathcom)
- Hydroxide scoping study (resulting in commencement of Hydroxide feasibility study)
- PLS offtake
- Additional tin offtake
- Full project debt funding

Now, the way things are shaping up it seems though we may reach 1$ without having all the above, especially should the market buy into FTs vision for the DRC as a battery producer. However, I think for fair valuation of the project in the 6-8 billion AUD region or above, I would think almost or all of the above should be reached. Though who knows in the lithium space today, we may well shine and reach 1$ by end of Q1 2022. I would suggest that may be an overvaluation for our current place on the mining life cycle, though certainly wouldn't complain.

Anyway, that's my two cents Mousey ol' boy.

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How about seeing only half of the project.
AVZ with 100 % ownership ( half project) and sticking with full value of DFS ( recalculated with today's Spod and tin price) for 4.5 million ton mine.

Fully funded to DFS cost.
$240mil cash.
$300mil debt.

Now, if you compare to peer I can see AVZ can easily reach $1+ after FID and $2+ at the start of production.
lMO.

AVZ Price at posting: 60.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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