when does qan trouble equal vba upside

If you live in SYD and really needed to be in MEL tomorrow at 10.00 am which airline would you book? When does the uncertainty around QAN's schedule translate into more bums on seats on VBA and by default better yields? Is buying both VBA and QAN at these SP levels almost an arbitrage play - people have to fly something. If the Geniuses (back peddlers) at JP Morgan are right and VBA fall over what happens to QAN stock. If the engineers dispute goes thermonuclear or infects the rest of a highly unionised workforce what happens to VBA's numbers. Surely there is a floor under holding both these companies simultaneously at the moment and if oil falls (I'm not that bullish about that - sorry Sabre) there is significant upside. Neither of these airlines has lost a cent this year.......yet. Wine laden musings.....